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Quarterly Tactical Allocation Update | Sean Barron

Each quarter Sean Barron, portfolio manager in our trust department, publishes an update regarding  Delta Trust’s investment strategies and performance from the previous three months. These posts also share insight on the short term outlooks.

We were rewarded in 2013 for taking an optimistic view on risk and what we felt were undervalued equities. Throughout the year, we maintained an overweight tactical risk position. During the year, we added an overweight position to developed international equities and funded that through a continued reduction to our bond allocation. For 2013, U.S. stocks, international stocks, and high yield were among the only asset classes with strong positive performance, with the well-publicized S&P 500 gaining 32.4%. On the other side, emerging markets, investment grade bonds and most alternative asset classes had low or negative performance.

Global growth should continue to gain momentum and will benefit from reduced fiscal drag. Disinflationary trends should continue to allow central banks to take an ultra-easy monetary policy. We continue with an overweight position to risk in 2014, a year in which we expect economic growth to reaccelerate and support corporate earnings growth. Although most of the growth in developed equities has been in multiple expansion over the last few years, we expect limited multiple expansion this year but strong earnings growth in both the U.S. and Europe.  The risk case in our view revolves around the Fed’s ability to manage the start of its interest rate normalization process and the effects this might have on the markets.

 

Sean Barron
Trust Department Portfolio Manager
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